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Will a subscription model for Microsoft Office work?

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) wants to expand the reach of its vital Office suite of products. The software giant wants to utilize a subscription model for the collection of programs. The initiative will commence later this month at Circuit City (NYSE: CC) and it will eventually reach other retail stores. People will also eventually have the option of accessing the subscription product via computers such as ones made by Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). The cost is reported to be $70 for twelve months of Office access.

This is an interesting scheme. As the article points out, businesses might not bat an eye at subscribing to software applications, but for consumers, this is a different ballgame. Many of us, myself included, are so used to going down to a Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to purchase a software package for a flat fee that paying yearly dues just seems like an alien concept. And I'd say this goes double for something as large and complex as the Office program. Microsoft believes that $70 on an annual basis will be perceived as cheap and will expose consumers who might normally either seek upgrades on a pirated basis or who would simply continue using older versions to regular approved updates. It is a large investment, after all, to upgrade to a new iteration of Office.

Microsoft would be wise to market the heck out of the subscription model for Office, taking full advantage of the inflationary environment we are currently in. If potential users can be convinced of the value proposition, then they could eventually become hooked on the promise of upgrades over time for the relatively economical price indicated. Checking around on the net, I notice that a lot of the negative comments about this idea center on the fact that there are already free alternatives out there to Office, such as applications offered by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Continue reading Will a subscription model for Microsoft Office work?

Album sales down 11% halfway through 2008

According to a Billboard article published Wednesday, Neilsen Soundscan has reported an 11% decline in album sales during the first half of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. Consumers purchased 204.6 million albums between January and June, over 25 million less than a year ago, but luckily not as sharp a decline as the 15.1% that occurred in the first half of 2007 as compared to 2006. Nielsen Soundscan told Billboard that the "drop is fueled largely by the 16.3% decrease in CD sales" despite digital album sales rising 34.4& to account for 15.4% of sales (31.6 million units).

Digital growth is still a productive and lucrative spot for the music industry, with single track downloads growing 30% to 532.7 million units in the first half of the year over first half sales in 2007 of 417.3 million units. Universal Music Group is still the most dominating music company, despite dropping .3% to 31.2% in sales. Sony BMG Music Entertainment and EMI Group also fell, with Sony BMG dropping .5% to 24.8% and EMI dropping 1% to 9.4%. The only major music company to gain any ground was Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG), rising .8% to 20.8%. Independent music companies also rose in the first six months of 2008, capturing 13.9% of the market -- up 1%.

Declines in album sales are a constant trend in the music industry, so an 11% drop is no real surprise but the lowered decline over one year ago should cause some relaxation. The only problem with the drop in decline is that album sales are still falling off. Even though Nielsen Soundscan and Billboard both commented on the hope provided by single track downloads, the industry still looks to album sales to justify the recording and marketing of music. If that trend would change, single track downloads would make an obvious market to rely on. Instead, reports about declining album sales will still continue while single track downloads continue to grow.

Will Americans have to slim down to fit into their cars?

When my wife and I were in Europe a few years ago, we saw the "Smart Cars," vehicles so small that they look like they could have come off an assembly line at a toy plant. The reason we were told that they were so popular in Europe was that gas was expensive and people there did not need to drive huge distances over crowded highways. Well, I thought these sort of vehicles would never sell in the U.S. where we like our cars as wide and free as freeway at the crack of dawn.

Thanks to $4 gas, my theory has been proven wrong.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) may start producing the Chevrolet Beat in the U.S., a vehicle which according to Bloomberg News is more than a foot shorter than any other vehicle and whose 40-mile-per-hour fuel efficiency is only topped by hybrids. The new service points out that the the automaker has little choice because its current market value is SMALLER than Matchbox car maker Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) and a 10th of what it was in 2000. It only took GM billions of dollars in losses but hey better late than never, right?

Don't get be wrong. I have nothing against the Chevrolet Beat. Judging from the pictures I have seen online. it looks okay, not my cup of tea, but then again that's why we have chocolate and vanilla. Thanks to Al Gore, I understand about global warming and feel guilty that I own the small SUV that I drive. Nonetheless, the Chevrolet Beat and other cars like it scare me.

Continue reading Will Americans have to slim down to fit into their cars?

MasterCard joins with Universal to offer free music downloads

Billboard reported Thursday that MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) has launched a new campaign titled "Roots of Rock" that offers free downloads for cardholders from Universal Music Group. Apparently the free aspect of the campaign is limited and after 100,000 songs have been downloaded, MasterCard will begin to charge $0.80 per track. Even after the credit card company begins charging for downloads, pricing for tracks is still lower than Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)'s MP3 Store ($0.89) or Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes Store ($0.99).

Cardholders who also make a purchase by August 31 will be "entered into a sweepstakes with a grand prize of having a meet and greet with Jon Bon Jovi, Eric Clapton or Kenny Chesney." MasterCard executive Amy Fuller told Billboard with the new campaign, the company has "created unparalleled music experiences with three of the world's most popular artists, providing consumers with an intimate perspective on these icons that few fans will ever have." But those fans will have to win the sweepstakes.

MasterCard's campaign to offer free downloads is like numerous other programs that are linked with music companies, but it offers to take the digital market to a larger consumer base. Lowered prices (eventually) for the campaign mean that Universal Music Group will continue to hold on to the lead in music sales, if only because the music company is the only one on board with MasterCard. Consumers that might not have ever downloaded a track may be enticed to try out the campaign and the sweepstakes. This type of growth is what the music industry will need if digital sales are ever going to replace physical sales successfully and completely.

Coldplay may have answered EMI's rumored hopes

Despite a 66% drop from first week sales of 721,000 copies, Coldplay's fourth album Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends retains the top spot on the Billboard 200, selling 249,000 copies in the album's second week of release. Billboard reported the chart placement Wednesday and noted album sales are down 7.66% in the last week while dropping 13.2% behind the same week totals from one year ago.

The album was released in the United Kingdom three weeks ago tomorrow, while it has only been out in the United States for two weeks. It debuted big in the UK, selling 302,000 copies in the first three days it was out and selling 500,000 copies after ten days. Sales in the U.S. over seven days are obviously larger than the UK figures, pointing to rumored hopes from the band's music label EMI that the album would provide a significant boost for the company during the summer and possibly the year.

I've had the album since it was released, reporting that very day about the packaging of a vinyl and CD copy together that seemed to hint EMI was aware that consumers listen to music more frequently on MP3 players even if they prefer vinyl copies for nostalgia or the entire experience. Two weeks at number is impressive in today's market and even though sales dropped 66%, 249,000 copies is a nice figure for one week. If continued rumors are true that the band will release another album within a year and a half, the future of EMI may be more and more based on the success of one band.

Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success

When Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) releases a new line of jeans next month from Levi Strauss, the eyes of the apparel industry will be tightly fixed on the world's largest retailer. The new denim jeans, which will be from the "Totally Slimming" line of Strauss's "Signature" line of jeans made specially for Wal-Mart, will promise to be comfortable yet produce a tummy-tightening fit for you ladies out there.

Now, these type of jeans have been available from department stores for a premium price for a while now. They're designed to automatically change that figure (no lipo required) while not feeling like a 19th-century corset. Wal-Mart's contribution to the process will, of course, be it's sub-$20 pricetag. Expect these jeans to fly off the shelves, literally. Even in the face of an economic downturn in the U.S., Wal-Mart has plodded along just fine. Products like these -- with prices like these -- will only reinforce the retailer's staying power in uncertain times

Levi's new product is designed to hold in thighs and lift the butt, among other things. As usual in full-service discounters, you can buy all the ice cream and potato chips that will bulk up the cellulite, then find the clothing solution to hide that nastiness right in the next aisle. Wal-Mart's new Totally Slimming product was tested by Wal-Mart women shoppers last November and proved a large success. For $20 a pair, these will draw even more women into Wal-Mart stores. If the retailer is smart, it'll build a large ad campaign around this product.

Google's one chance for Android - become a wireless carrier

When Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) purchased wireless software development company Android years ago, its founder asked Google's co-founder Larry Page, "Is this interesting to Google?" It sure turned out to be, although the mobile phone operating system environment was announced almost a year ago and nothing concrete has shipped in a customer device yet. My bet is that Google isn't delaying development to fine-tune its software -- it's had years to do that and the money to boot.

The problem is the wireless environment in the U.S., for starters. The competitive landscape is so tightly controlled that Google's mantra of "open access" just won't sit well with wireless carriers used to telling customers what they can and cannot do with their phones. If you think U.S. consumers have control over their wireless lifestyles, a quick trip to Europe will dispel that notion pretty fast.

If Google really wants to make Android the ubiquitous, free and open mobile operating system it wants it to be, what are the alternatives to having partnerships with mobile carriers who will, of course, be afraid of Google? Google has bid on wireless airwaves before (only to have the goal of allowing open devices accessible to closed networks), but this time, I see it going down the mobile virtual network operator route, plain and simple. Although the MVNO model has largely failed in the U.S., Google doesn't have a national wireless network to operate. But with its large pockets, it sure can buy wholesale from the existing carriers and place its Android customers with service -- and then, give them anything they want. Like, mobile search results with ads next to them.

General Motors (GM): Electro-Shock Therapy

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) investors, as well as auto industry trackers, will want to read Jonathan Rauch's "Electro-Shock Therapy" in the July 2008 issue of Atlantic Magazine. Mr. Rauch was given unprecedented access to all personnel involved in GM's company-wide commitment to have a market-ready electric car by late 2010. GM personnel note the Chevy VOLT, as the car is named, will not be a hybrid per se, but will be the first mass market electric car with a range of 40 miles per charge, enough to cover the daily commute of 75% of American workers. The car's small gasoline engine will be used to recharge the battery, while only electricity will be used to power the wheels. GM is trying to wow consumers by manufacturing an affordable electric car that will sever the connection between driving and the gas pump.

GM lost the engineering and publicity wars on electric cars to Toyota's Prius years ago. Toyota has been eating GM's lunch ever sense. According to GM's VP Bob Lutz, it's payback time. Using the same rhetoric President Kennedy used to launch the Apollo space program and race to land on the moon, GM has sectioned off the Volt division and given it complete decision-making and spending authority to reinvent not only the electric automobile, but also the company itself. In one Volt engineer's words: "Go big or go home."

Yes, there are problems with the weight to power ratio in the battery. And yes, production of both the battery and the car body are being rushed towards production without the normal period of evaluation. But GM has staked its future on the Volt, and unlike my colleague Michael Rainey who isn't that positive on the Volt, there's reason for at least cautious optimism, a quality currently in short supply coming out of Detroit.

Automakers brace for more hard times to come

It probably should come as no surprise, but June was a tough month for automakers, and all signs are pointing to more troubles out on the horizon.

All but one major automaker saw their sales drop last month, with Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC) being the sole exception. For the month, Honda actually had a 1% year-over-year sales growth, which given the current market place was an exceptional feat.

So just how bad was June for the automakers? Pretty bad. During the month, combined auto sales fell to 1.19 million vehicles sold, a 266,000 decline from the same period last year. This just continues the trend that we have been seeing all year, amounting to roughly a 10% sales decline during the first half of the year.

Continue reading Automakers brace for more hard times to come

Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Last year, actually 18 months ago now, James Cramer had enough faith in the Rite Aid Corp (NYSE: RAD) to include it in his 2007 picks. At that time the stock was trading for $5.49 per share. It closed yesterday at $1.56 and is trading further down today.

When I say RAD is wrong, wrong, wrong, I mean it literally. There is a store located a few blocks from my office that I shop at perhaps once a month. Yesterday I bought a few things and was amazed at how bad their accounting was.

My primary mission was to acquire some toothpaste, but there are always a few tempting sale items. When I was checking out I discovered that the sports drink for sale at "5 for $5 dollars" was a mistake and the sign in the store display should have been taken down because the offer had expired. Another item I purchased was marked down from $3.99 to $1.99, great deal! . . . but they told me that the sale price was placed on the wrong shelf for that product and what I wanted was not on sale.

Continue reading Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Verizon's Seidenberg: Someday, Steve Jobs will get old

Sometimes a major CEO seems like a foolish child more than a competitive leader. And sometimes the head of Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Ivan Seidenberg, has said things that make many of us scratch our collective heads. With Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) 3G iPhone about to hit the street (but not the Verizon network), Seidenberg must have been driven by jealousy to say something silly.

In response to the impending release of the 3G iPhone, Seidenberg said: "There goes the conspiracy again. You're declaring them a winner before they've earned it on the field." This in response to a reporter's question about the new iPhone achieving mass market appeal due to the lower entry price of $199. The iPhone does not have a huge market share when all sold phones are considered, but the new $199 price tag could sure put the Cupertino company in a position to ramp up that share pretty fast. This apparently concerns Seidenberg.

Sometimes waiting out the competition is a strategy that doesn't involve much R&D. Seidenberg went on to say, "Steve Jobs eventually will get old . . . I like our chances." Instead of trying to find some innovation to provide to the Verizon customer, maybe Verizon (along with all the other wireless carriers) will just try to wait out Apple's wireless offerings until Steve Jobs retires. Doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me. But then again, Seidenberg has said some pretty clueless things before. Maybe this is just another example of a corporate leader who's out of touch with his industry.

Nokia signs Warner Music for 'Comes with Music' phone plan

Reuters reports today that Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) has signed up Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG) to its "Comes with Music" phone service and music store. Nokia is the world's top phone manufacturer and will be making a direct challenge to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes Store, according to numerous reports. The "Comes with Music" service is the first from a phone manufacturer to "push heavily into content" and "differs from other packages on the market as users can keep all the music they have downloaded" while in yearly contracts with Nokia.

WMG executives allowed the music company to join up with Nokia since the service "is the first global initiative to fundamentally align the interests of music companies with telecommunications companies." Nokia already secured the support of fellow music companies Universal Music Group and Sony BMG Music Entertainment in April, and "Comes with Music" launches later this year. Reuters speculates that the agreements with three of the top four music companies (EMI Group has not signed up yet) will "help Nokia attract smaller music companies and challenge the dominant pay-per-track sales model for digital music." Last year, download sales totaled $2.9 billion; if the 146 million Nokia phones had featured "Comes with Music", those sales would have surpassed the digital market.

Record labels have consistently looked for new methods to challenge Apple's grip on the music industry, and subscription models like "Comes with Music" may finally provide that challenge. Subscription models give the music industry more shares per download since users typically are not allowed to keep tracks downloaded during the subscription. "Comes with Music" is betting against that model since users will be allowed to keep music downloaded, and Nokia and the record companies are no doubt hoping that dynamic will keep those consumers renewing contracts with the service. Reportedly, the subscription for "Comes with Music" will only cost $20 per phone, which on a yearly basis would not be too expensive for unlimited downloads.

Apple could create headaches for Garmin and TomTom

You would think that companies making standalone GPS devices would be making bank right now. The devices that never let you get lost when driving are important to many travelers, especially when you don't want to fumble with maps, let alone get lost and waste a bunch of expensive gas getting back on track. Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN), one of the leading GPS makers, though, has seen tough times recently. Its shares have declined 56% recently. Why I'm not sure. I do know that it has nothing to do with Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that's about to be released in a few weeks.

Apple's new 3G iPhone will have embedded GPS, which will make the gadget all the more useful. Regardless, though, will consumers be using their iPhones as replacements for full GPS devices in all those vehicles? Unless there is a decent vehicle mount kit available, it's hard to believe so. The iPhone does have the best chance at displacing more units from Garmin and other GPS makers like TomTom in the car navigation arena, but the entire GPS experience is what some folks probably forget about.

If you've ever used a GPS navigation program installed on a normal cellphone or smartphone, does it works seamlessly like a standalone product? Can you take and make calls while the GPS continues working in the background, giving you all those voice directions? What makes standalone GPS devices so valuable is that they work even when we're multitasking with phone calls. That's the kicker: the first time you miss a direction by voice because you're busy chatting on the phone, a GPS solution on top of a cellphone -- at least for driving purposes -- would become useless to the average consumer. I doubt Apple's upcoming solution will be this drab, but I continue to see a bright future for standalone GPS device manufacturers (although profits will continue to dwindle). Apple, as always, is not the only game in town. It will still be big for non-driving GPS uses, though.

Sprint's new iPhone-killer selling like hotcakes

Doug pointed out recently that the new Samsung Instinct most likely could not save Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) from its current financial and customer woes. He's right -- one phone does not resurrect a company. However, the Instinct -- which looks and functions very similar to an Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone -- is still selling like hotcakes. My guess? It's all due to Apple, not Sprint.

The Instinct, which apparently has become Sprint's best-selling 3G phone product ever in a very short time, is an impressive device. Feature-for-feature, it's right there with the upcoming 3G iPhone about to be released in a few weeks. Independent research that counted the movement of Instinct phones at 100 Sprint stores around the country report that it's selling out fast. Sprint contends that the smartphone is the fastest-selling phone in Sprint's history up to this point.

But, to those customers of Sprint (new and old) who just can't see themselves joining AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) just to get an iPhone, the Instinct is apparently turning out to be a perfect equivalent. If Apple had never released the original iPhone, the Instinct may have never been born. Apple, as usual, has made other hardware companies realize that hardware needs to be elegant, and software needs to be way elegant. The clumsy designs and complex cellphone interfaces may soon be extinct, thanks to Apple. And, Sprint's sales of the Samsung Instinct will at least owe partial credit to the iPhone maker.

Bono applauds Radiohead for the method used to release 'In Rainbows'

Despite criticism by Irish band U2's manager Paul McGuinness over Radiohead's method for releasing In Rainbows last October, U2's lead singer Bono has published an open letter in NME disagreeing and applauding Radiohead for the album and how it was released. McGuinness told the BBC in early June that the method was "a failure and backfired" because "it still resulted in over 60%-70% of listeners acquiring the album through illegal channels."

Bono's letter to NME, printed in last week's issue, takes a sharp left turn from his manager's opinion, calling Radiohead "courageous and imaginative in trying to figure out some new relationship with their audience." Bono also remarked how "blessed" he feels "to be around at the same time" as "a sacred talent" like Radiohead. U2 have recently taken steps to reach their audience, joining forces with Live Nation Inc. (NYSE: LYV) in a deal that will market their music and concerts with related products from one location.

U2 is still signed to Universal Music Group for the band's record releases, which may have been one reason McGuinness came out against the method Radiohead used last year. Neverthless, the disagreement between manager and lead singer is insignificant compared to the applaud Radiohead continue to receive from fellow artists. Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails, a band that was also signed to Universal Music Group, has also come out in support of Radiohead's method, even though he, too, took issue with some aspects of it. Reznor has since released two NIN albums the same way.

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 07:45 PM

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