ebay

If you thought Black Friday was just for brick-and-mortar retail, think again. The official start of the online shopping rush is the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (Cyber Monday is its name), but don't think that companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) are going to wait that long. They're in the game now. And they want your attention. More importantly, they want you to use the virtual shopping carts at their respective sites early and often. It's really crucial this year, because the economy stinks, and growth in spending isn't going to be great.

According to CNBC, Amazon's strategy is to use very low prices as a way of stopping competitors like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) dead in their electronic tracks. This Christmas season, retailers, whether online or not, may find themselves in a no-win situation. They have to lower prices to encourage people to shop. But quality growth in top-line sales is questionable. When managements see the bad news flow about the global recession, they become scared and want to become even more aggressive in terms of pricing. The strategy may work and it may not. It's a vicious circle. Don't get me wrong, the retail industry faces this problem every year at this time, but you have to agree that the current economic cycle is particularly noxious. It's times like these, however, when retailers should want to offer more than just a value proposition. They should want to offer a differentiated shopping experience, a better selection of items. They should strive to offer up a brand image that makes you want to hit their inventories first. They need to step away from trying to undercut all their competitors and instead figure out how to stock the right merchandise in the right amounts. And when it comes to a business like Amazon, I think there's great opportunity to go beyond low-pricing strategies. Quite frankly, I don't care whether Amazon has the lowest prices or not. I find it easier to do some of my holiday shopping on the site. It saves me time during this busy season, I trust the security of the platform, and I know that the supply chain is efficient and reliable. And I definitely think of Amazon first when looking to do online shopping because of its valuable brand equity.

I saw some interesting Nielsen data posted at Silicon Alley Insider the other day about traffic levels at eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY). They seem to be on the decline. I don't want to spend time repeating a bunch of the numbers here, but suffice to say that trends in unique visitors and page views on a year-over-year basis have not been favorable to the online-auction entity. One quick example would be the 33% drop for the page-view category seen in October.

What the heck is going on? Man, I remember when eBay was loved unconditionally and considered to be the best yard sale on the block. Heck, it wasn't just for closet-cleaning exercises; a person infused with even a modicum of an entrepreneurial spirit could easily start a business on the site. And its brand was second-to-none in this space. Well, eBay's brand equity remains high, but the bloom has definitely come off the rose, at least from my perspective.

On an anecdotal basis, I've heard many complaints about eBay, especially from the point of view of the sellers. But there's no question that eBay has to do something about the declining stats. People are spending less time at the site, and that surely won't do much in terms of appeasing the sellers.

Say it ain't so, Mark Cuban.

Yesterday the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged the billionaire with insider trading. The regulatory agency claims that Cuban sold shares of mamma.com, a Canada-based Internet search company, with the advance knowledge of a yet-to-be-disclosed private equity offering of company shares.

Cuban allegedly sold his shares under the assumption that the private offering would greatly dilute his holdings. Selling as he did prevented the loss of some $750,000, the SEC claims in its charges.

He denies the charges and vows to fight.

Mamma.com changed its name to Copernic Inc. (NASDAQ: CNIC) in 2007. As a result of the highly publicized charges against Cuban, I expected to see trading volume in CNIC increase from its current average volume of 45,000 shares.

Sure enough, volume yesterday was at more than 350,000 shares. The lemmings are so predictable. They see something on the news and they place a trade.

No matter that the reasons for the company being in the news have little to do with the business, its current state or its future potential. The company is in the news because of insider trading, period.

Now, is that a reason for a stock to go up in value?

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which competes with the e-commerce segments of companies such as Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) AOL, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), closed on Wednesday at $49.99. After hours, it plunged to $42.98, a drop of 14%, following its earnings report. Actually, I didn't think the numbers were that bad. Sales increased 31%, and earnings per share came in at 27 cents per share on a diluted basis. That performance represented a growth rate of 42%, and it was 2 cents ahead of Wall Street expectations.

As you can imagine, though, it's the fear of what lies ahead that's put pressure on Amazon's stock. Management has stated it intends to carefully assess its investment priorities. The economy is getting worse, and all retailers, online or brick-and-mortar, from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to Target (NYSE: TGT), are going to feel the sting of the careful-spending consumer.

Amazon is going to continue doing what it does best: namely, keep its corporate head to the ground and process those holiday orders. But I have to wonder if there is an opportunity here. If the economy is headed for further disaster, perhaps precipitated by the negative wealth effect (i.e., people becoming less inclined to spend due to their shrinking net worths), then Amazon might be able to persuade them that online shopping at its website is the way to go. Not only will it save on fuel costs, but the company offers free shipping on orders that meet a certain price threshold. That might beat a trip to the mall.

Over the past few weeks, a variety of tier-1 VCs have issued grim warnings to their portfolio companies. For example, Benchmark Capital's Bill Gurley has an extensive memo, which says that it will be critical for entrepreneurs to hunker down.

Well, it looks like companies are taking note. Just look at Zillow.com (for which Benchmark is a backer). The company announced that it is letting go of 25% of its workforce (or 40 employees).

No doubt, Zillow is an innovator and has a great team. Essentially, the website makes it easy to get a value of your house. But of course, the real estate market remains lackluster. More importantly, the capital markets are still in a deep freeze.

With already $87 million raised, Zillow believes it's a good idea to keep its powder dry. Besides, the site is still clocking strong gains in traffic.

Oh, Playboy (NYSE: PLA)! The news just keeps getting worse. I was checking out the stock quote this morning and saw that the sexy company's shares (by "sexy company" I refer to the fact that Playboy makes its money off naked women, I do not mean to imply that this is an awesome growth situation, as if you needed to be reminded, right?) are down to $1.75. Can that be right? I'm afraid it is. I then had to check the news to see what awful catalyst reared its ugly head this time. I found one that was posted earlier in the week at paidcontent.org. It looks like Playboy is going to be riddled with charges in the third quarter and will be ditching 80 jobs. It'll generate a net loss in Q3. And one final thing: it's getting out of the DVD business.

Say what? Are you kidding? The article also displayed a memo from CEO Christie Hefner. She basically tries to spin the exit from the DVD business as some sort of smart strategic move. Heck, it looks to me more like a move that she had no choice but to make to save money. I understand her thoughts about shifting to digital distribution, but come on, if the company can't make it in the home-video arena, then there's something really, really wrong with the business. The brand's power is being destroyed by all the competitive forces in the adult space. X-rated content is everywhere on the internet, amateurs can start up their own websites pretty easily, and clips can be posted and accessed on YouTube at a moment's notice. These are trying times for Playboy, and the CEO needs to realize that aggressive action must be taken to improve the brand equity of the Bunny.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) will be reporting earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday, October 21. The internet portal hasn't had a great year so far. According to data at Earnings.com, the company hasn't seen too much in the way of bottom-line growth. And the stock is, as of this writing, at the low end of its 52-week range. Of course, just about all stocks are having a rough time this year. Then again, Yahoo! could have avoided all this misery and just allowed itself to become assimilated into the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) culture. Poor CEO Jerry Yang. What was he thinking?

The call is for Yahoo! to post at least $0.09 per share for the bottom line. It would be nice if management could go beyond those expectations, since the company posted $0.11 per share in the year-ago period. Yahoo! really needs to show the market that it can stay relevant and keep up with the likes of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) AOL. Google recently booked a quarter that went well beyond the thinking of analysts. Yahoo! has a relatively decent history of beating earnings expectations, but it did miss the call last quarter, according to AOL Finance. So there's going to be a lot of pressure on Yang to perform.

Of course, let's be honest. The earnings, in the big picture, don't really matter. Yahoo! is essentially, in the minds of many, still an arbitrage play. In fact, Tobias Buckell recently commented on this subject. There are a lot of investors out there who would like to see Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer come back to the table to begin a new round of negotiations for a takeover of the portal. I, for one, wouldn't want to see that. Does Microsoft really need the headache of integrating the web company's brand assets with its own? No. However, looking at it from the perspective of a Yahoo! shareholder, I obviously see why a buyout would be attractive. That might be the only way for the stock to command any premium these days.

Let me declare right from the start, that I currently hold no position in eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY). However, if I did have the money to invest, I'd be buying into eBay right now as it goes down. I see eBay shares as a serious bargain right now. I was already thinking that when it 's share price hit $16. I know that I'm going against the grain again, but heck, that's what works best for me.

The company is making moves to keep its books churning numbers in the black. Never mind that I think some of those moves are absolutely rotten to the core. eBay payroll reductions have begun, and I believe that the company intends to cut about 1,000 heads total. It's a classic black ink move, tailor made to provide a positive performance facade to cover shrinking growth. Additionally, the company is cutting off the practice of allowing it's sellers to accept checks and money orders. It's a move which has angered a large number of sellers, but the bottom line is that the change should give PayPal a boost.

The most famous search engine in the world, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), reported third-quarter numbers on Thursday after the market closed for the day. They were pretty good, all things considered. But hold on before buying the stock. Let's get to the data first.

Google saw its top line increase over 30% to $5.5 billion. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share came in at $4.92 per diluted share. That was good for only a 6% rise in the bottom line, but it did handily beat analyst estimates. According to this source, expectations were for $4.75 per share. Even better, net cash from operations soared just about 34% to roughly $2.2 billion. There's no question that Google has a good advertising model with its search-based technology. Indeed, Google is an innovative leader and a major brand on the Internet. It offers an efficient way for advertisers to target users who might be interested in their products. And it's true that an advertiser can see what it's getting for its investment. Even competing against big guns such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) AOL, Google more than holds its own (although I'd really like to see management make better use of its expensive YouTube acquisition -- check out this article by Sheldon Liber on the subject).

Online bill paying is nothing new. Consolidated bill payment services online aren't very new either. However, as I was researching one of the many fledgling, service cost reduction offerings, namely BillShrink.com, that little light bulb went off again in the back of my head.

What I am thinking about is this; Now that we can conduct virtually any financial transaction online, why doesn't someone put together a complete and comprehensive online billing consolidation and cost reduction service? Microsoft has been providing something similar to my idea, but their service requires constant user interface, and I don't believe that it provides comparison shopping for alternative services. With my concept, the consolidation agency would take over all aspects of bill paying for the subscriber, up to and including continual comparison shopping for cheaper or better services for it's subscribers. I believe that, until now, bill consolidation services have merely been payment transactors. I'm saying that it's time for them to become far more proactive.

Famed online auction platform eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), whose Internet colleagues include Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), will be reporting earnings for the third quarter on Wednesday after the market closes up shop. What should shareholders expect from the company?

Well, according to data posted by Trey Thoelcke, shareholders shouldn't expect much. While the top line is expected to rise by double digits (around 13%) to $2.1 billion, nothing is really cooking in terms of the bottom line. The call is for $0.41 per share. eBay booked $0.41 per share in the year earlier period. As you can see, that's a 0% growth rate, and that's never good (well, unless you're a financial company, in which case that's actually great). However, there is one silver lining to the earnings story for shareholders. If you take a look at past earnings data, you'll notice that eBay has a snazzy reputation for beating estimates issued by analysts. So, I'd be willing to bet we'll see an easy beat this week.

As to whether or not this particular stock will rally upon such news, that's difficult to say. If Monday's rallying sentiment makes another visit on Wednesday, then I'd say eBay could be an interesting earnings trade, mostly because it isn't far from its 52-week low. Unfortunately, I think any rally that we get in the market right now is not to be trusted. It just can't be. Profit-taking is always going to be waiting to sap the power out of any rally, simply because we know the economy isn't going to be great for many months to come. So, even though I like the technical set-up to some degree vis a vis eBay's earnings-beating history, I personally wouldn't be buying. For me to trust any rally, I'd need to see some confirmations and additional up days.

Innovation, thy name is Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). A couple of its latest innovations came across my screen this week -- a patent application for sea-based server farms, and a cooperative venture to create a satellite network.

The more interesting of the two, to me, is the sea-based server farm concept. The patent application described this water-based data center as a system that "includes a floating platform-mounted computer data center comprising a plurality of computing units, a sea-based electrical generator in electrical connection with the plurality of computing units, and one or more sea-water cooling units for providing cooling to the plurality of computing units."

It expands this concept to include wave, motion, tide, wind power generation and the use of sea water to cool the server farm. The idea is very sexy, straight from many science fiction novels but more practical every day. Air-conditioning land-based server farms is a huge expense.

Google has also partnered with Liberty Global and HSBC to create O3b networks, according to Cnet.com. The company's goal is to place sixteen satellites that would link with ground units to provide wide-ranging wireless communications, including Internet connectivity, to underserved world populations, including those of Africa and Asia.

The aggressive target date for the satellite network completion is 2010. The sea-based server farm idea is just a patent application today, but with Google's nest egg and focus on innovation, the time to implementation could be shorter than you might think. I think my next science fiction short story will be about server farm pirates.

It has taken about ten months longer then we had planned, but CircleBuilder.com has finally closed its seed round of funding. The convertible debt has become equity priced at a dollar a share and it's gone up in value, at least on paper. However, that value is not liquid, so is not worth discussing.

Before I go further, I should disclose that I am on the Advisory Board of the company and was one of the early investors. Many of my posts are written as an "adventure in investorland" relating my own experiences. For those who feel this is too promotional, you can turn away. My purpose is to share the journey of an insider as this company builds.

There was little certainty that CircleBuilder would be a success when we started. Along the way, I have had some reservations about the financial and time commitment; I do not need one more thing to do, or a way to lose money.

When we started, MySpace was all the rage and Facebook was gaining momentum rapidly. The founders, Howard Brown and Brent Cohen, came to me with an idea to develop a social networking site catering to religious communities that were not well served by the free-for-all, anything-goes nature of existing alternatives.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC have struck a partnership in which the search-engine juggernaut will sell some commercial inventory on a few of GE's cable properties. Examples of cable channels in this initiative include Sci-Fi and MSNBC.

This is a win-win situation for both Google and NBC. As the article states, Google gets to expand its ad-brokering universe by having access to cable inventory and reaching beyond its very successful web paradigm. For its part, NBC leverages the expertise of Google and its relationships.

It's kind of ironic when you stop and think about it -- media companies want to go beyond TV and stake a claim on the web, and Google wants to do the opposite, namely grab a piece of a more traditional pie. Nevertheless, the synergy here is quite clear, and if the slowing economy continues to challenge the advertising marketplace (as it undoubtedly will), a partnership like this one can only help the companies involved.

Yet, there's a side to this story that goes beyond the partnership itself that I find very interesting. Google can actually measure metrics that describe how a commercial is received by the public. It can do this because of a hook-up between it and DISH Network. Google can capture data from set-top boxes and analyze the stats behind broadcast-ad campaigns. This represents a great benefit for the industry as a whole.

According to this article, advertisers who use the Internet to get their message across may not like Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Internet Explorer 8 beta. That's because the software giant is incorporating technology into the browser that will make it harder for data collection that could be used to target ads. In addition, the browser will be able to block some ads entirely, as well as block content from another website from appearing on the current site a user is viewing. The rationale for the latter is that the outside website could be capturing data on the user's habits.

All this adds up, in my mind, to a legitimate fear for advertisers. Look, I'm like anyone else. I don't want a lot of data collection going on. But, there are basically only two ways for companies like Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to make money off web content: engage a subscription model, or utilize ad platforms to monetize eyeballs. The Internet has proven to be very resistant to subscription models. Sure, some do work to great success. For the most part, however, surfers don't want to have to throw a credit-card number into a form to be able to see content. It just doesn't work. They want unfettered access to sites. If this is to be the case going forward, then highly-targeted ads are going to play an increasing role in the solution to monetization challenges. Web sites aren't like cable channels, which have the dual revenue streams of subscriber fees and ad sales.

And, keep in mind that the companies mentioned above aren't the only ones who rely on targeted ads. How about Disney (NYSE: DIS)? News Corp. (NYSE: NWS)? Viacom (NYSE: VIA)? They all have major Internet strategies that utilize ad revenues. And let's not forget the incredible irony here. Mr. Softy has its own Internet strategy that needs ads to survive. I guess it's a tough position to be in: the designers want to enhance the attractiveness of Internet Explorer to users by helping them avoid the very thing that powers, in part, shareholder value for the maker of Internet Explorer. A conundrum, to be sure. I personally hope a solution can be found that will allow advertisers to continue selling their wares. I don't find advertising to be evil. I think it's a great industry that serves an important function in the economy. Microsoft had better consider that.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.