Fair Value? when the price is at $40 fair value becomes $55 as of jan-06, now price lower fair value is lower. most of the stock price is balance on investor (concern)..fuel by the analyts/media. ignoring the company track record and business model.
Ebay is second to NONE in their forum,auctions, payments, ecommerce shopping,ad's and now voip.
Not one of Ebay units are on the losing end, all are cash flow generators with low operating cost(no cost of carry,....INVENTORY).
I fail to see What is a Fair Value of this Stock,

Analyzing the Analysts - It's all a joke right?
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/09/14/analyzing-the-analysts-its-all-a-joke-right/

$45 $55 $65 Say whatever you like. For every guess theres another in the 30s and 20s too.

The threats discussed in the video?

How about explaining 10% fewer page views year on year (as reported on BS earlier) and 4% fewer page views month on month. Thats frightening for eBay.

Get real. Ebay aint the animal it was and Joe Public is going elsewhere. Yea sure, the idea of creaming off millions of sales without investing in inventory is great. But it isn't new, banks have been doing it for years. In fact they do better. Get money out of buyer AND seller. Thats cute but it doesn't mean theres no ceiling to their stock value.

Ebay are so wrapped up selling autos now they can't be bothered with Joe and his dollar Pez dispenser. That's cool if you need inch thick lenses to see any distance in front. Where will Joe buy his next Auto? Ebay? Yea right!

Ebay worked by making everybody, young, old, big, small, rich and poor feel part of something. Now a large chunk of these guys are on the outside feeling excluded. They're blogging, chatting, piccy swapping and socialising on the newer, bigger, better, cheaper, more fashionable community sites now.

If Pat Dorsey wants to see a real up to date, appealing 'network effect' then I reckon eBay looks like a stale sandwich compared to the You Tubes and My Spaces now.

Did someone say VOIP? By the time they get a fraction of the cost back on Skype we will probably have another, newer, better, more expensive comms technology making the headlines (and given away free of course).

Suppose in the end you pays your money and takes your choice. Trouble is I reckon a lot of people paid their money back in the tail end of 05 and dont have any choice now. All they can do is talk a good game and hope like mad and cant contemplate the pain of a stop loss.

Keep gambling! If you're lucky a new broom will sweep in and focus back on what made ebay great. Until that happens they will sail you down the next big drain that opens up in front of them.

Well,
I think Pat forgot one thing about the stock market. Stock price is not about how the company has done or the company is doing right now. It is about how will the company do in the future. My guess is that they will not continue to grow at the same rate they have been growing and they will continue to face difficulty from Google, Graig List and etc. To top it all off, the will realize that they've paid to much for Skype.

Let me just give you guys an example about my expereince with Skype. Currently I am in Africa and my wife is in US. Calling each other became very expensive. So, my friend suggested I try Skype. Well, I signed up for skype and bought some minutes and called her from Africa (using dial-up internet connection) on her cell phone. The connection was really bad. They dealay was about 2-3 seconds and it didn't worth it.
Well, we decided a try Yahoo computer to computer calling and it worked much better. We used it for about a month and last week we just tried Google Talk. I can tell you that Google talk is even much much better way to talk and of course it is free.

While I was in US, I never needed Skype. I always used my cell phone If I needed to talk anyone in US. If I needed to communicate with someone outside the US, I always emailed or chatted using Yahoo,MSN and etc.

When I first started using Ebay (late 1990s) I bought and sold several things. I haven't bought or sold anything in 3-4 years because I just find the site very annyoing. Why will I want to buy pre-paid cell phone service on Ebay or buy the latest DVD? Ebay is suppose to be a place where anyone can find rare or semi-rare items. It is becoming just another website.
To top it all off, it is becoming expensive and the fraud is increasing...and it seems like managment is not addressing sellers concerns and etc..

Helen you are right about Joe and his dollar Pez dispenser, the commission on autos replaces millions of Joe’s dispenser, Come on get it right, it’s All about doing a better business model.
Years ago that work at Ebay, now that old format is not SUITED for Ebay now,
The young has grown up the Baby boomer rules commerce including online shopping,
EBay is gearing to meet that “Sotheby client” want it now market place.
You sound bitter of the fee hike change, do the next best thing that good for you and be happy.

Now why did you compare Myspace to Ebay, it’s apple and oranges,
Skype is not the average VOIP out there, their technology has not explain to the Joe Public.
When this is fully implemented it like looking for a ad in the yellow pages and click the icon and be connected without having to dial using your regular phone to converse.
Stock price is not a guessing game it’s a science base on the disciple of a company.
Analyst and their concerns, what a crap MOST DO NOT have banking relations with their subjects, look at their disclosures.
Who is buying more shares, the big Investment Bank, Fidelity 35% , Capital Research & Management 98%, Smith Barney 83%, Oppenheimer 65% increased shares holding as of 6/30/06,
while Joe Public like (you) panics.

Ann. Thanks for your latest comment.

I reckon you need to read my post again and understand it before you repeat your rigid, blinkered pro-everything eBay doctrine.

Try reading jb's comment about Skype and understand it. Then go do a google on Skype and read about the other alternatives on the way that jb didn't mention. Check the purchase price and potential future liabilities from the deal and figure out the return needed on Skype by eBay and then make a sensible guess on the time window they have to do it. Use your brains and not an analysts/PR mans offerings.

Ask yourself which businesses really want 24 hour calls coming in from every time zone that an EMPLOYEE will have to answer when eCommerce is supposed to help cut labor costs. It's already obvious eBay sellers don't want the facility. Ever tried to find an Ebay listing that uses it? They've had it available to them for months now.

If you can't see the relevance in comparing other sites to eBay the whole point of eBays previously successful community approach must be lost on you.

What relevance your bank comments have I don't know but they didn't address the point I made. All I pointed out was banks have a better 'no inventory' model as they can earn from both ends of each deal but this doesn't mean their stock value gets inflated in peoples minds.

If you don't understand what a 10% y/y page view fall represents and a 4% m/m fall then you should read the last paragraph in comment 4 again.

Helen once again you are not on subject, These # you talk about are said by analyst who has not Banking relations with subjects. What is their interest?.
Look at the Jan-07 Options contract there is 300K Plus contract between the $37.5 and $60.0 calls vs ONLY 11k plus contract ABOVE the $37.5 puts
DO YOUR HOME WORK.

Ann - read my original comment and follow up. Don't put words in my mouth.

If you want to 'follow the crowd' and trust your future prosperity to other peoples opinions that's up to you. Personally I prefer to trust (and blame) my own opinions.

At what point do we recognise there is a seriously dangerous fragmentation of eBay users going on?

OK we've heard the endless, largely selfish, justification by numerous sellers as to why eBay is 'doomed'. We've also seen the 'head in the sand', everything is rosey in the garden opinons.

But to my eyes, all I see is an eBay under increasing pressure to perform in future in ever more difficult circumstances. Certainly not just because of the strikes and protests by angry store sellers.

1) eBay are under self-imposed time driven pressure to prove the multi Billion dollar Skype purchase wasn't a massive mistake.

2) They seem to have reached the limit of squeezing eBay sellers for income both in sellers fees and Paypal fees. But costs are not going down.

3) They are persisting in their disasterous loss making far eastern challenge to Jack Ma. We know Meg Whitman doesn't like him (do a google for some choice quotes) but I trust the personal feelings wont influence the commercial judgement? The eBay site has undeniably been degraded for the cream, paying users by the desparation of eBay to get a meaningful foothold in China.

4) They are possibly a whisker away now from some serious regulatory/legal pressure because of the dirty image eBay is getting for fraudulent listings, stolen goods, counterfeit items etc. In fact the French have already gone after eBay as their luxury item producers have had enough.

5) They are spending fortunes trying to get the Express brand/site off the ground when they seem to have had a perfectly good substitute under the existing eBay brand (stores) that could have been adapted instead of alienated.

5) Competitor auction/stores sites, although well behind eBay individually, have collectively made huge gains in user numbers and item listings in the past 2 months or so.

6) In addition to existing competitor gains, new competition is starting to show. Jack Ma is rumoured to be expanding, uBid has openely announced aggressive expansion plans, numerous potential beneficiaries are openly targeting the upset store owners and even a new site is launched by fed up eBayers today!

http://www.theopenpress.com/index.php?a=press&id=12371

7) Anyone bothered looking at shopping.com?

8) Pro Stores? Massive potential due to the stores debacle. But a totally wasted opportunity.

OK I could go on but... none of this worries you at all Ann?


Graham

Graham
Your grandfatherly points of worries do not apply in business or economics models, if so you are "doomed".
Look a this company Qtr results, Qtr over Qtr it's speaks volumes, that is the difference.

Ann, listen to Grandpa if you have a moment to spare for a senior citizen.

We can all see what HAS happened. We can see the results that HAVE been reported and we can also see what HAS happened to the stock price.

If there is no place in 'business or economics models' for Grandpas sillyness then I guess we can understand why Enron was Fortune Magazines most innovative company in America six years running. People believed what they were told and Enron certainly looked great on paper.

Now Grandpa isn't saying eBay are doing an Enron, as far as he knows, but what he is saying is the past is not often the best guide to the future, particularly when it comes to investing. When you're a Grandma Ann you may have learned that.

So tell us Ann what you think WILL happen and why?

The OP was about $45 being a reasonable valuation based on what Pat Dorsey thinks of eBay. I maintain that valuation is way too optomistic based on what Grandpa thinks is happening at the moment and the trends that are starting to take shape in Grandpas mind.

Now I don't need you or anyone else to tell me what HAS happened again. I want to hear your opinions about what WILL happen and why eBay is good value now.

I do value cry_me_a_rivers views on Skype. He's happy to offer the opinion that Skype has good prospects. I disagree but at least both of us are willing to take and explain a view on the future. One of us will be wrong, the other right. Care to take such a risk Ann? Take and explain a view on the future without telling us what has already happened? If not, perhaps investment and risk taking is really not a good idea for you.

So, instead of looking at old news, Grandpa prefers to look at this kind of thing to see if he can predict tomorrows news:

http://auctionbytes.com/cab/abu/y206/m09/abu0175/s02

You see this gives Grandpa a clue about what WILL happen. There's obviously some worrying intentions here and Grandpa still questions whether these will definately become reality, but it's new news and clues to the future.

We all know eBay has been an incredible success. Old news. But none of us know, not even Grandpa, whether eBay will be an incredible success in the future. We have to make an educated guess.

So you see, if Grandpa is going to buy in to eBay at $27 or $28 then he wants to be confident the business is on the right track going forward. This is because his risk is dependent on what will happen and not what has happened.

Now I fully accept theres no place for silly old Grandpa in this modern world run by lighthouses of the investment community like you Ann. You light up and show us all the way to go. I defer to your youthful wisdom. Grandpas silly old fashioned musings have no value in this modern world.

So while I can't say Grandpa is confident enough about eBays future to invest at the current price he has at least learned something today about lighthouses. He now knows that, if you put a lighthouse in the desert, it's brilliant and entirely useless.

EBay is international
1) A stronger US dollar conversion rate offset prior cautious projection at the end on 05. to EBay botteline in 06
2) Paypal 37% increased in the international market in 06 & 11% increase domestically.
3) Skype added income $60million in 05 vs., $200 million -06 accounted posted acquisition already incorporated.

I look at your survey 1100 + VS 350,000 plus,
What are you listening to?

“Since the data reflects respondents' intentions, not actions, the data could reflect a temporary malaise among online auction sellers.”

Do you think Ebay will lose any of the $40 billion in sale in 06,?

Management accounted for WHAT the expected change in fee will result within a set deviation and DID not issue upside guidance.

Google & Yahoo both, alliance with EBay, Moat EBay’s dominance reducing capex in 07, pending alliance with the like of Myspace and other marketable forms for SKYPE
is not to be underestimated.

The street was surprise at the Yahoo & Google deals, where they not ? YES.

These are intrinsic move that places this company well beyond current levels.

I read with great relish the above posts. Ann, all hype aside, please work on your grammer skills. Even if you're right about some things... you're almost impossible to make sense of.

Grampa, keep coming around, I like what you have to say.

Now let's address the very basic essentials of this discussion:

Ebay's past performance means little. We all know that. The conditions of today's market change in a flash. Long range predictions are very difficult.

What we can lay a hand on is eBay's actual POTENTIAL. The opportunities here are enormous. I have a nose for potential and I can tell you eBay management is just plain missing the boat.

I could very easily outline a course for eBay which would meet the criteria of investors, buyers and sellers as well as establish a program of growth which would vault the company into the next decade. But, I'm not on their payroll, I don't make 250k a year as a consultant and I hold no shares, so I won't.

Ebay helps sell a lot of cars? I know a lady that has a $13,000 heap she bought on the site. It sits useless on her driveway and she has no recourse. Gonna go fix it Ann?

$45.00 ISN'T a reasonable valuation for eBay shares. Neither are $55.00 or $60.00.

But the analysts (who hold no shares) can only judge objectivly by the same information available to the rest of us.
For the most part they only report what they see and the investors, for the most part, react to it.

We won't get off this eBay band wagon until whatever changes are taking place have their full effect. It would be very short sighted to completely jump ship now. But I'll gaurantee that the institutional investors are going to keep slipping money out in small chunks just to hedge their losses. They'd be silly if they don't

If the current course is followed and some immediate corrections are not implemented, then there's going to be a continued downward slide for the stock, or at least no growth of merit.

Yes, rose colored glasses work for a while but in the harsh light of day you can still see what you might trip over. Smiley face projections work for no one. Idealism in business must be augmented by real world intentions and honest hard work or it fails.

I tend to listen to the guy with dirt under his nails.



Best Regards,

Gary E. Sattler

Gary
I do admire your speech writing flair, can’t give you credit to read a financial statement or reports.
“But the analysts (who hold no shares) can only judge objectively by the same information available to the rest of us. For the most part they only report what they see”

Guess What?
ANALYTS ARE LIKE THE WEATHER MAN …

Who the hell start coverage on a company with a SELL rating and a price target @ $24.00
When the current stock price is $28.00 .
So Gary tells us according to you “I could very easily outline a course for eBay”

You continue to listen to the rumors and I will continue to read EBay management
reports.

GOOD LUCK with your campaign

Ann, Grandpa here.

I wouldn't be so rude as to criticise your writing ability but I am wondering if you would like to borrow my bifocals for a day or two? I have a spare pair.

I did ask you to give us an explained opinion about what WILL happen and not to tell us again what HAS happened.

But you appear to have missed the meaning of these words. You see, despite my years and the odd ache and pain, I can still read mags, papers and websites myself and don't need to have old news repeated over and over unless it's by my wife of course.

Unfortunately, despite my years, I still can't do time travel and invest a month ago when I know what will happen.

But rest assured Ann, I am working on the time travel project and you will be the first to know when it's up and running.

I'm thinking about selling 'Grandpa Time Travel Investment Inc.' to eBay soon for a couple of billion. I will make sure you have the inside knowledge first so you can get in on the ground floor before eBay pay the big bucks across.

Can't say fairer than that can I? You heard it here on Bloggingstocks first folks!

Right, let me just get this blanket off my knee so I can press the send....

This happens all the time with companies. They go through a period where people think they will "never recover."

That's stupid. eBay's the place anyone goes to sell things, even before they check with their friends. It's easy, and despite what Helen said, they do take money from buyers and sellers. Obviously she has no clue.

Framentation of their user-base? What about their buyer base? That's all that matters. As long as demand stays up, that's all that matters. Page views mean nothing. All that matters is how much is listed and sold on the web site, everything else are all indicators, page views could absolutely be a false indicator.

Grandpa..Graham
I am certain you are a Bless person, your placidity is remarkable and most enjoyed by me.
As stated this saga brings about passions of the writer’s expressing their opinions and
far off of it’s origins of the Fair value of $45.00. You cautioned at this due in part to the resources you have at hand. I questioned your resources. To my delight is not a respectable one.
In fairness I am not myopic to this company discipline and transparency and do not need you bifocals for a day or two, thanks.
I will state given the synergies of EBay composition, in my opinion a $45.00 fair value in underrated and unmatched by any competitor in their sector.

Thanks and be well.

Hi John,

Can you explain to me how eBay takes money from buyers and sellers in an auction sale please?

Or are you referring to indirect charges being passed on from one party to the other?

Thanks.

Anne, what a surprise to see you here.

Are you sure you are on the right site? This is called blogging stocks, I think you're after 'blagging stocks'.

There's only so much hot air that can pump up the lead balloon known as Ebay.